Xi-Putin meeting in the shadow of the war in Ukraine

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin met on September 15 in Samarkand, Uzbekistan

Xi and Putin met on September 15 on the sidelines of a SCO Summit. This was Xi’s first trip abroad since the outbreak of the covid-19 pandemic in early 2020, sending a signal of the importance attributed both to Russia, the SCO and the Central Asian countries from the Chinese leadership. Still, while the Xi-Putin meeting is important and has received a lot of attention, Xi’s trip should also be seen in the context of the Central Asian region.

Meeting on September 15
Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin met on September 15. The meeting took place on the sidelines of a Summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. This was Xi’s first trip abroad since the outbreak of the covid-19 pandemic in early 2020, sending a signal of the importance attributed both to the SCO and the Central Asian countries from the Chinese leadership. Moreover, this was the first in person meeting between Putin and Xi since the invasion of Ukraine.

The background of the meeting
For Xi, the background of the bilateral meeting is the upcoming Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Congress starting on October 16 where Xi is expected to get an unprecedented third term as leader of the CCP. Furthermore, the trip to Central Asia offers an opportunity to show that despite growing tensions with the West, China still has partners and is prepared to assume a leadership role.

For Putin, the background of the meeting is that Russian forces - after seven months of war - had led a military defeat in Ukraine and were on retreat. Russia is increasingly isolated and faces sanctions from the West. For Putin the meeting with Xi and the participation at the SCO Summit is a chance to show that Russia is not isolated.

During the two leaders’ previous meeting in February this year in Beijing, the two leaders launched a “no limits” partnership and issued a statement for NATO to stop its expansion. This was seen as the two states stepping closer together. However, shortly after this meeting, Putin launched an invasion of Ukraine. So far, Xi has abstained from direct criticism of the invasion. Nor has Xi provided direct military assistance to Russia and Xi has complied with the international sanctions against Russia. Still, bilateral trade increased to 140 bn. USD in 2021 and is expected to reach staggering 200 bn. USD soon.

So, the meeting was awaited with great interest. How would Xi respond to Putin? Would Xi subject Putin to criticism over the invasion of Ukraine and align more with the West? Or would Xi abstain from criticism and move closer towards Russia?

Xi-Putin meeting
During the meeting, Xi and Putin discussed the war in Ukraine and other "international and regional topics", according to the Kremlin. Xi said, quoted by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, that China would “work with Russia to extend strong mutual support on issues concerning each other’s core interests” and “play a leading role in injecting stability into a world of change and disorder”. Xi talked about China and Russia as great powers that have to work together – without mentioning Ukraine.

Putin said, quoted by CNN: "We highly appreciate the balanced position of our Chinese friends in connection with the Ukrainian crisis. We understand your questions and concerns in this regard". This appeared to be a veiled admission that - behind closed doors - there has been voiced concern over the war in Ukraine as well as concerns from the Chinese side of negative impact of the war on the region’s security.

Thus, while Xi did not directly criticize Russia’s invasion in Ukraine, there was no direct support either. Rather than stepping closer to Moscow or aligning with the West, Beijing is standing in the middle, seeking a middle-ground. A central concern for Xi in relation to the meeting with Putin is the stability of Central Asia, showcasing the high strategic importance attributed to Central Asia for the Chinese leadership.

Xi’s interest in Central Asia
So why is the Central Asian region important for the Chinese leadership? One can point to a number of factors.

First, security. Reportedly Uyghurs have been detained in Xinjiang – a group that share the same culture as those living in Uzbekistan. Among those detained were ethnic Kazaks living in Xinjiang giving rise to a potential conflict with the Kazakh government. The Chinese leadership is concerned with issues of separatism and extremism, in particular in the Western part of the country and a big part of the national budget is reserved for expenses on domestic security (6.1% of government spending in 2017). Moreover, China seeks to secure its borders and create a buffer between it and unstable states like Afghanistan. Thus, the Central Asian region play an important role for China's domestic security.

Second, the one-China policy: given the geographic proximity of the Central Asian states to Russia, and the fact that the Central Asian states used to be part of the Soviet Union they are worried about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. With the invasion of Ukraine, some countries including Kazakhstan, even supported sanctions against Russia. Now, the Central Asian countries turn to China instead of Russia as a security guarantee. A link to Beijing’s Taiwan question can be observed. With the recent conflict in the Asian region following US Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, the question of Beijing’s one-China policy has – once again - become disputed. In this vacuum, obtaining support for the one-China policy is important for the Chinese leadership. Thus, before arriving at the SCO summit, Xi visited Kazakhstan at a state visit, and met with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. Xi then travelled to Uzbekistan and met with Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev. He also met the presidents of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. With all state leaders – including with Russia’s President - Xi secured pledges of support for China’s “one-China policy”. Such pledges are important for the Chinese leadership, in particular in the current situation. In other words, the Central Asian states can be used as alliance partners in securing support for Beijing’s position on Taiwan and to counterbalance the US. Moreover, it has become important for Chinese leadership to step up and take leadership in the Central Asian region in the current situation with instability caused by the war in Ukraine and to assuage the Central Asian countries of their security.

Third, investments: the Central Asian countries hold a special place for the Chinese leadership as part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). In fact, the BRI was announced during Xi’s trip to Kazakhstan in 2013. Imitating the old Silk Road from Northern China, across the Pamirs, through Afghanistan, and into the Black Sea, the Chinese leadership seeks to increase trade along this road. Over the past two decades, China has invested heavily in the BRI – and some of the countries that have received most investments are the Central Asian countries, both investments in energy and in infrastructure. More investments are expected to come. For example, Kyrgyzstan recently announced it would begin construction in 2023 of a new rail route connecting it to China and Uzbekistan. Thus, the Central Asian countries play an important role for Xi’s prestige project.

So, as we can see, the Central Asian region is strategically important for the Chinese leadership – both for its economy and for its security. While the meeting with Putin surely is important for the Chinese leadership, Xi’s trip should also be seen in the context of the Central Asian countries, as this relates to Chinese domestic stability.

Concludingly
For the Chinese leadership, the relationship with Russia is of high strategic importance. Russia is an important alliance partner in questions such as the Taiwan question and can be used to counterbalance US power as well as to counter the growing economic pressure on China from the West. In fact, Xi personally, has invested a lot in the strategic partnership with Russia. Still, while the Xi-Putin meeting is important, Xi’s trip to Central Asia should also be seen in the context of the Central Asian region given that the region is of high strategic importance to the Chinese leadership, and as it relates to Chinese domestic stability.