US’s shifting position on Taiwan

Taiwan is located about 160 km off the coast of mainland China

On 18 September, US President Joe Biden said in a TV interview that the US would come to Taiwan’s defense if China were to launch an unprovoked attack. This has been seen as a shift of US policy vis-à-vis Taiwan and has provoked China’s anger.

Biden’s remarks
On September 18, US President Joe Biden said in an interview on the TV-program 60 Minutes that the US would come to Taiwan’s defense if China were to launch an unprovoked attack. Moreover, Biden said: “Taiwan makes their own judgments about their independence… That’s their decision.”

This was the fourth time that Biden made a comment pushing on what has otherwise been the US policy toward Taiwan since taking office. The first time occurred in August 2021 during an interview with ABC News. The second time occurred in October 2021 during a CNN town hall meeting. The third time occurred in May 2022 in Tokyo. And now this fourth time. Every time the US administration has denied that there is any change in US policy towards Taiwan. Thus, on Monday Sept. 19, White House Indo-Pacific coordinator Kurt Campbell said: U.S. policy “has been consistent and is unchanged, and will continue”.

Still, some experts say this assertion of “no change” of policy is no longer credible. E.g. Michael Swaine, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, notes that the difference this fourth time, was that it was a prepared interview. This way, argues Swaine, Biden has now removed all ambiguity and there is no longer any doubt that this represents a change in US policy. Yet, others, including M. Taylor Fravel, Professor at MIT, argue that there is no change but that the remarks have muddied the waters.

However, to see if there has been a change of US policy toward Taiwan, we will look here at what is – and has been – US policy toward Taiwan.

US policy toward Taiwan
In 1979, US President Jimmy Carter formally recognized the government in Beijing and severed diplomatic relations with Taiwan. Since then, US has abided to the “One-China policy”. But how is this to be understood more specifically? US policy toward Taiwan is formulated in a number of key documents, including the three joint US-PRC communiqués of 1972, 1979 and 1982, the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) from 1979 and a series of policy documents made over the years, such as the “six assurances” from 1982. Here, we will look at these key documents respectively.

The three communiqués
The first communiqué from 1972 (also called the Shanghai Communiqué) states: “The United States acknowledges that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China”. However, in particular, the second communiqué from 1979 holds a central importance as according to this, diplomatic relations with Beijing were established (also called the “normalization communiqué”). Moreover, it states: “The Government of the United States of America acknowledges the Chinese position that there is but one China and Taiwan is part of China”.

The meaning, however, of this second communiqué is disputed - possibly due to an error of translation. In the English version of the document, it says that the US’s position is that it acknowledges that China views Taiwan as part of its territory whereas in the Chinese version, the US recognizes this, as noted by Richard C. Bush. Later US administrations have maintained the English version of the text as the authoritative one, despite Chinese views to the contrary. This central dichotomy is at the root of US policy towards Taiwan.

Another important document is the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) of 1979: according to this, it is US policy to consider “any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means, including boycotts and embargoes, a threat to the peace and security of the Western Pacific area and of grave concern to the United States.” The TRA requires the US to have a policy to “provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive character”. Accordingly, the US has sold military equipment to Taiwan during the last decades – to the distress of the Chinese leadership.

Finally, there are the “six assurances,” which the Reagan administration communicated to Taiwan in 1982. It includes pledges that Washington would neither mediate between Taiwan and China nor pressure Taipei to negotiate with Beijing, among other things.

The “One-China policy”
So, there are a number of documents guiding US policy toward Taiwan and the US’s “One-China policy” is built on the above documents. Given the ambiguity inherent in the US position toward Taiwan it has been called a policy of “strategic ambiguity”. It follows from this that while the US wishes for a peaceful resolve to Taiwan’s status it doesn’t say whether US forces might be sent in response to a Chinese attack. This ambiguity as to US’s intentions toward Taiwan has been considered central for the stability in the Indo-Pacific. E.g. Swaine notes that this policy of strategic deterrence, had a positive effect in the seventies as it caused Beijing to commit itself to seeking peaceful unification as a top priority and this understanding has kept the peace in the Taiwan Strait for decades.

A change of US policy towards Taiwan?
However, with the recent remarks from Biden there are some indications that a change of US’s policy toward Taiwan has taken place. First, Biden’s comments point to that the US is willing to send military forces to defend Taiwan – not just in the event of an unprovoked attack – but under any circumstances. Second, the remarks point to that decisions about Taiwan independence are Taiwan’s. This would be a break with US’s standard position that US does not support Taiwan’s independence and it would come close to providing Taiwan with a security guarantee.

A change in US policy towards Taiwan has been observed by some Chinese commentators. An editorial in the government-controlled outlet China Daily notes: “It is becoming clear that the US is gradually bidding farewell to a policy of “strategic ambiguity” over the Taiwan question which it has stuck to for decades”. Says Xin Qiang, Fudan University, in the government-controlled outlet Global Times: “While there have been no formal policy changes or announcements from the White House, there are growing signs of "strategic clarity", especially in terms of strengthening deterrence against the Chinese mainland”. Along these lines, unnamed Chinese experts are quoted by Global Times for saying that “China clearly knows that the US is trying to erode its “one-China policy””.

Thus, there is a perception among some Chinese observers that a change of US’s Taiwan policy has taken place – away from the policy of “strategic ambiguity” towards a policy of “strategic clarity” and that, in fact, the “One-China policy” is eroding.

Others again, argue that no change of US policy has taken place but rather that Biden misspoke. For example Fravel notes that “Despite their reoccurrence, I don’t view these statements as reflecting a change in strategy… that said, especially with White House denials that US policy has changed, the president’s statements create greater uncertainty or confusion over what US policy actually is.” As a result, the waters have been muddied.

Greater uncertainty in the Taiwan Strait
Still, regardless whether an actual change of US policy toward Taiwan has taken place, there is greater unclarity as to what US policy vis-a-vis Taiwan actually is. Is what we see an actual change of US’s policy toward Taiwan (providing Taiwan with a security guarantee)? Or are Biden’s remarks simply evidence of an increased level of deterrence from the US side?

Supporting this last claim, it can be observed that Biden’s remarks come on top of recent activities which have increased the level of conflict in the Taiwan Strait. This includes the visit to Taiwan by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in August followed by Chinese military drills around the island. Increased US military sale to Taiwan in recent years, in particular during the presidency of Donald Trump. As well as the proposed Taiwan Policy Act of 2022 - currently reviewed by the US Congress – which will, if legalized, mark an upgrade of the Taiwan Relations Act.

Concludingly

On September 18, Biden said in a TV-interview that the US would come to Taiwan’s defense if China were to launch an unprovoked attack. This has been seen by some observers as a shift of US policy toward Taiwan and has provoked China’s anger. Still, regardless of whether an actual change of US policy toward Taiwan has taken place, Biden’s remarks have created greater uncertainty as to what US policy towards Taiwan actually is. Moreover, the remarks come on top of recent activities which have increased the level of conflict in the Taiwan Strait. We are entering more dangerous times.