Lockdown in nearly every province in China with 65 million residents affected

New covid-19 cases were recorded in nearly every province in China over the past week in the most severe outbreak since the early days of the pandemic in 2020. The Chinese authorities have responded with lockdowns and mass testing. Over the weekend, at least 33 cities, including seven provincial capitals and one municipality, and an estimated 65 million people across China were under some form of lockdown.

Cities under lockdown
Over the weekend, at least 33 cities, including seven provincial capitals and one municipality, and an estimated 65 million people across China were under some form of lockdown, according to Caixin, a Chinese news media. Cities under full lockdown include Chengdu, the capital of Sichuan province, a city of approx. 21 million residents. The lockdown on September 1 was initially announced for a duration of four days - only to be extended further for an unspecified amount of time. During the lockdown, citizens are not allowed to leave their home, except in exceptional circumstances, such as a medical emergency. Mass testing of the whole city started on September 1.

Other Chinese cities under full lockdown include Daqing - a city of nearly 3 million people - in the northeast, Dalian - a city with around 6 million people - in the northeast and Shenzhen – a city of almost 18 million residents – in the south.

Other Chinese cities are under partial lockdown. E.g. Shijiazhuang - the capital of Hebei province - with around 11 million people and Harbin – a city with 10 million people - in the north.

Flights have been cancelled in many airports in China, including in Shenzhen (82% of flights cancelled) and in Chengdu (88% of flights cancelled).

Moreover, domestic travel has been discouraged during the upcoming national holidays, including the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day. The Mid-Autumn Festival from September 10-12 is a three-day holiday where traditionally, hundreds of millions of workers travel to their hometowns for family gatherings. The National Day is held on October 1.

Moreover, these lockdowns come on top of the two-month lockdown of Shanghai in the Spring of this year, as well as the lockdown of Xian (January 2022) and other major cities in China.

All these measures are evidence of the Chinese leadership’s zero-covid policy which has been the main policy response of the Chinese leadership during the pandemic.

Zero-covid policy
So what is China’s zero-covid policy? The zero-covid policy has a focus on fangkong (prevention and control). The idea is to stop outbreak of virus as soon as it occurs and to act quickly to stop transmission of virus. This includes mass testing, lockdowns – even citywide - and quarantines despite the economic and social cost.

For Chinese President Xi Jinping the zero-covid policy is a central tenet of his rule and is seen as a proof of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) strength - and by implication, his own leadership.

Starting on October 16, the CCP will hold its five-yearly Congress in Beijing. During this year’s congress, Xi is expected to obtain an unprecedented third term in office. Given the centrality of the zero-covid policy for Xi as well as the centrality of keeping the pandemic under control, we can expect strong measures against any breakout of virus in the next months.

Economic costs
The lockdowns across China have come with a heavy price for the Chinese economy. The economy experienced growth of 0,4% in second quarter leaving little chance that China will reach its 5,5% target for 2022. The export of goods abroad has been dampened and manufacturing and supply chains are at a risk of disruption. Moreover, unemployment is high, especially among young people.

Still, according to the Chinese leadership, even if the zero-covid policy has caused disruptions and leads to heavy social and economic costs, it has helped avoid the massive death tolls of places like the US. Faced with criticism by the World Health Organization (WHO) for its zero-covid policy, a spokesperson for the Chinese foreign ministry, Zhao Lijian said: “China’s huge population ... means that relaxing prevention and control measures will inevitably lead to the death of a large number of elderly people”. Thus, there is a concern with the health of the (elderly) population. Hence, it seems unlikely that the zero-covid policy will be loosened in the near term.

Concludingly
Over the weekend, an estimated 65 million people across China were under some form of lockdown following covid-19 outbreaks. While the zero-covid policy comes at heavy economic and social costs, we can expect the zero-covid policy to remain (at least) until the upcoming CCP Congress where Xi is expected to obtain an unprecedented third term as leader of the CCP.