Sino-Taiwan relations have entered a "new normal"
US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan on August 2 despite warnings from Beijing of serious consequences should the trip go ahead. Chinese military exercises over Taiwan were announced right after the arrival of Pelosi. These have changed the status quo between the two parties and we can expect to see a more assertive China vis a vis Taiwan. Sino-Taiwan relations have entered a "new normal".
“Unprecedented” military exercises
On August 2, right after the arrival of Pelosi, the Chinese defense ministry announced that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) would conduct military exercises from August 4-7 in six zones throughout the Taiwan Strait and around the island of Taiwan. The military exercises were extended twice and ended on August 10. These were the largest military exercises in the region since the mid-1990s. On August 10, a spokesperson for the PLA’s Eastern Theater Command, Col. Shi Yi, announced that Chinese forces ”successfully completed various tasks” during the naval and air force training missions around Taiwan.
During the military exercises, missiles were launched into six exercise zones throughout the Taiwan Strait and around the island of Taiwan. Some of the missiles landed in Taiwan’s territorial waters - some even in Japan’s exclusive economic zone. Aircraft flew over Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) and some of the aircraft crossed the median line in the Taiwan Strait.
Finally, naval ships were placed around Taiwan, including two aircraft carriers, in what could be characterized as a blockade.
The military exercises also had an effect for commerce as commercial airlines were warned to avoid airspace around Taiwan between August 4 and 7 in a de-facto no-fly zone. The closures also affected commercial shipping bound for Taiwan, as well as fishing grounds.
According to Global Times, a government controlled newsmedia, the military exercises were “unprecedented” and the missile launches and naval blockade of the island demonstrate the “Chinese mainland’s absolute control over the Taiwan question”.
Still, it is important to consider what the Chinese military did not do. PLA aircraft did not enter the airspace of Taiwan’s main island and Chinese naval ships stayed outside of the main island’s territorial waters. Thus, despite the military exercises being comprehensive, still, they can be characterized by restraint on China’s part.
US response: overreaction by China
How to think about the current Chinese military exercises? On the one hand, China’s military exercises and the Pelosi visit were nothing out of the ordinary. In the words of White House spokesperson John Kirby, “China has chosen to overreact”. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a tweet: “We call on the PRC not to unilaterally change the status quo by force in the region, and to resolve cross-Strait differences by peaceful means. There is no change in the respective one China policies, where applicable, and basic positions on Taiwan of the G7 members.”
According to U.S. officials, US warships and warplanes expect to return to regular operations in the Taiwan Strait - regarded as an international waterway - guaranteeing rights of navigation and overflight.
So, the response from the US side has been to downplay the significance of Pelosi’s visit and that the military exercises were an overreaction from the Chinese side. The position from the US side is that the status quo in Sino-Taiwan relations is unaltered.
A “new normal”?
However, several things point to a change of status quo in Sino-Taiwan relations. First, following the end of the military exercises on August 10, spokesperson for the PLA’s Eastern Theater Command, Col. Shi Yi announced that PLA will continue regular patrols in the Taiwan Strait. Said Shi: “Theater troops will pay close attention to changes in the situation in the Taiwan Strait, continue to train and prepare, organize regular combat readiness patrols in the Taiwan Strait and resolutely safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity”. This announcement suggests that Beijing seeks to normalize military exercises in the Taiwan Strait, making military exercises in the Taiwan Strait the “new normal”.
Second, until Pelosi’s visit, Sino-Taiwan relations were guided by several principles, including the tacit agreement on the median line of the Taiwan Strait. While Beijing has crossed the median line before - e.g. in 2019 – the large number of times (125 times according to Taiwan’s Defense Ministry, quoted by Newsweek) that the median line was crossed during the current military exercises is noteworthy. Moreover, the government controlled outlet Global Times has quoted unnamed experts for saying that China will no longer respect the median line. Specifically, they are quoted for saying with regards to the current military exercises that: “the PLA forces will enter area within 12 nautical miles of the island and .. the so-called median line will cease to exist”. Says military expert Zhang Xuefeng: “since Taiwan is a part of China, Taiwan's so-called territorial sea is also China's territorial sea”. Thus, going forward it would appear that China no longer will respect the median line in the Taiwan Strait nor will recognize the Taiwan Strait as international waters.
Third, on August 10 – on the last day of the military exercises - the Taiwan Office of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) published a new White Paper on Taiwan. The White Paper must have been underway for a while and was likely targeted for the upcoming Chinese Communist Party Congress in October – but was issued now prompted by Pelosi’s visit. The White Paper suggests a slightly tougher stance on Taiwan. While the basic principles guiding China’s stance on Taiwan are the same as before, the White Paper suggests that the “One Country Two Systems” approach may involve less political autonomy for Taiwan.
Thus, overall, while China did not plan for Pelosi’s visit, the visit has been used as a window of opportunity for China to change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait. We can expect to see regular military exercises in the Taiwan Strait going forward and that the median line no longer will be respected by China.
Concludingly
All this points to a change of status quo in Sino-Taiwan relations. Sino-Taiwan relations have entered a “new normal” where we can expect continued naval and air operations in and around Taiwan. According to some analysts, e.g. Center for Strategic and International Studies and David Chen, the events following Pelosi’s visit will come to be known as the fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis. This is possible. In any case, Sino-Taiwan relations have entered a “new normal”.