Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan fuels Sino-US conflict
On Tuesday, US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi arrived in Taiwan on the first trip for a sitting Speaker in 25 years. Pelosi arrived in Taiwan despite warnings from Beijing of serious consequences should the trip go ahead.
On Tuesday, August 2, Nancy Pelosi arrived in Taipei. For several weeks before the visit, the Chinese Foreign Ministry had warned that the visit “would seriously violate the one-China principle”. And that “China will take strong and resolute measures to safeguard its sovereignty and territorial integrity”. In a phone call on July 28 – one week before Pelosi’s arrival - between President Xi Jinping and President Joe Biden, Xi said: “The position of the Chinese government and people on the Taiwan issue is consistent. It is the firm will of more than 1.4 billion Chinese people to safeguard China’s national sovereignty and territorial integrity.. Those who play with fire will get burned”.
Before the trip, Biden had warned Pelosi about going to Taiwan. Still, while Biden publicly said the US military did not believe it was a good time for Pelosi to visit Taiwan, he did not tell her directly not to go.
How has China responded?
Within minutes of Pelosi's arrival in Taipei, PLA announced, quoted by CNN, that it would begin "a series of joint military operations around the island," including using long-range live ammunition in the Taiwan Strait. In addition, military exercises were announced for August 4-7 that will extend into Taiwan’s waters and maybe even internal waters. On Wednesday, a ban of 100 food products from Taiwan was announced which will harm the Taiwanese economy going forward and we have seen cyber attacks on Taiwan government websites. Possibly, more measures are to be expected in the next days and weeks.
What to think of the trip?
According to some commentators, the trip is one of “friend-shoring” and should not be seen as a security threat. As presented by Roselyn Hsueh, the visit is meant to ensure supply-chain sustainability during a time of heightened tensions with Beijing. The trip is occurring in the context of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework announced by Biden during this own trip to Asia in May. Along these lines, the argument would be that the trip only is intended to increase trade and that it is the Chinese leadership’s responsibility not to turn Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan into something it is not.
However, on the other hand, the visit by Pelosi is a step up creating a security crisis between the US and China. According to PRC, Taiwan is part of China's territory. This principle is one that China uses as a basis for having relations with other countries and is recognized by, so far, 178 countries as well as a number of organizations, including the United Nations. For Pelosi, who is number three in the US presidential line of succession, to visit Taiwan transported by US military aircraft, was clearly a violation of this principle.
Moreover, Pelosi’s trip comes at a particularly tense moment, as Xi is expected to seek an unprecedented third term at the upcoming Chinese Communist Party congress. And Xi is under attack for being weak on Taiwan. So, the visit by Pelosi forces him to take strong measures.
Concludingly
With Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, we have seen an escalation of US-China relations. Whereas Pelosi might use this trip to gain popularity in order to be re-elected, it is hard to see what the gains are for Taiwan or for the US for that matter. We are heading towards more dangerous times.